National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology

Extended Range Prediction

Background:

Extended Range Prediction (ERP) for Bhutan is prepared with the support from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Government of India. The model used for the system is CFSv2 coupled model (Atmospheric and Ocean model) which runs once every week (Wednesday), with the 16 Ensemble Members at a horizontal resolution of around 25 km, and the products are made available the next day (Thursday). Therefore, the ERP products for Bhutan will be generated every Friday. ERP for Bhutan is carried out for two climate variables, rainfall and temperature. Generally, the forecast output is produced on a weekly basis for a period of a month for both the variables. The current products available from NCHM are on pilot basis which needs further studies and validation with the ground observations until the product is fully operationalized.

Issued Date: 05 June, 2026

Summary

Below-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the country during the first two weeks, followed by above-normal rainfall across most areas in the later weeks.

Above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over the southern, southwestern, and some northern parts of the country during the first two weeks, before returning to near-normal conditions in the later weeks.

Near-normal minimum temperatures are likely during the upcoming weeks, although some isolated areas may experience slightly below-normal minimum temperatures.

Click here to download Extended Range Prediction issued on 05 June, 2026

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Extended Range Prediction issued on 29 May, 2026

Extended Range Prediction issued on 01 May, 2026

Extended Range Prediction issued on 20 March, 2026

Extended Range Prediction issued on 13 March, 2026

Extended Range Prediction issued on 30 January, 2026

Extended Range Prediction issued on 23 January, 2026

Extended Range Prediction issued on 16 January, 2026

Extended Range Prediction issued on 09 January, 2026

Extended Range Prediction issued on 02 January, 2026