National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology

Extended Range Prediction

Background:

Extended Range Prediction (ERP) for Bhutan is prepared with the support from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Government of India. The model used for the system is CFSv2 coupled model (Atmospheric and Ocean model) which runs once every week (Wednesday), with the 16 Ensemble Members at a horizontal resolution of around 25 km, and the products are made available the next day (Thursday). Therefore, the ERP products for Bhutan will be generated every Friday. ERP for Bhutan is carried out for two climate variables, rainfall and temperature. Generally, the forecast output is produced on a weekly basis for a period of a month for both the variables. The current products available from NCHM are on pilot basis which needs further studies and validation with the ground observations until the product is fully operationalized.

Issued Date: 07 August, 2026

Summary

●Below-normal rainfall is expected across much of the country during the first three weeks.During the fourth week, above-normal rainfall is likely over the western parts of the country,while most other regions are expected to experience below-normal rainfall.
● Above-normal maximum temperatures are expected over the southern belt of the country during the first two weeks, with near-normal maximum temperatures prevailing elsewhere and across the entire country during the final two weeks.
● Minimum temperatures are expected to remain near normal over most parts of the country during the coming weeks.

Click here to download Extended Range Prediction issued on 07 August, 2026

Archive

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Extended Range Prediction issued on 31 July, 2026

Extended Range Prediction issued on 12 June, 2026

Extended Range Prediction issued on 05 June, 2026

Extended Range Prediction issued on 29 May, 2026

Extended Range Prediction issued on 01 May, 2026

Extended Range Prediction issued on 20 March, 2026

Extended Range Prediction issued on 13 March, 2026

Extended Range Prediction issued on 30 January, 2026

Extended Range Prediction issued on 23 January, 2026