Background:

Extended Range Prediction (ERP) for Bhutan is prepared with the support from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Government of India. The model used for the system is CFSv2 coupled model (Atmospheric and Ocean model) which runs once every week (Wednesday), with the 16 Ensemble Members at a horizontal resolution of around 25 km, and the products are made available the next day (Thursday). Therefore, the ERP products for Bhutan will be generated every Friday. ERP for Bhutan is carried out for two climate variables, rainfall and temperature. Generally, the forecast output is produced on a weekly basis for a period of a month for both the variables. The current products available from NCHM are on pilot basis which needs further studies and validation with the ground observations until the product is fully operationalized.

Issued Date: 1 March, 2024

Forecast Date: 1March 2024 - 28 March 2024

Summary

• The rainfall is likely to be below normal for the rest of the week. 

• The maximum temperature is likely to be below normal for the first two weeks  and normal for the third week and then be above normal in the last week.

• The minimum temperature is likely to be below normal in the first two weeks and normal for the third week and be above normal in the last week.

Click here to download Extended Range Prediction issued on 1 March, 2024

Archive

Click to download

Extended Range Prediction issued on 23 February, 2024
Extended Range Prediction issued on 16 February, 2024
Extended Range Prediction issued on 09 February, 2024
Extended Range Prediction issued on 02 February 2024