Background:

Extended Range Prediction (ERP) for Bhutan is prepared with the support from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Government of India. The model used for the system is CFSv2 coupled model (Atmospheric and Ocean model) which runs once every week (Wednesday), with the 16 Ensemble Members at a horizontal resolution of around 25 km, and the products are made available the next day (Thursday). Therefore, the ERP products for Bhutan will be generated every Friday. ERP for Bhutan is carried out for two climate variables, rainfall and temperature. Generally, the forecast output is produced on a weekly basis for a period of a month for both the variables. The current products available from NCHM are on pilot basis which needs further studies and validation with the ground observations until the product is fully operationalized.

Issued Date: 11 August 2023

Forecast Date: 11 August 2023 - 7 September 2023 

Summary

• The rainfall is likely to be above normal for the first three weeks and normal for the last weeks.

• The maximum temperature is likely to be above normal for the first three weeks at isolated places and below normal for the last week.

• The minimum temperature is likely to be normal for all four weeks, except southern parts can expect above normal minimum temperature for the  last three weeks.

Click here to download Extended Range Prediction issued on 11 August, 2023

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Extended Range Prediction issued on 27th January, 2023
Extended Range Prediction issued on 20th January, 2023
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Extended Range Prediction issued on 06th January, 2023