National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology

Extended Range Prediction

Background:

Extended Range Prediction (ERP) for Bhutan is prepared with the support from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Government of India. The model used for the system is CFSv2 coupled model (Atmospheric and Ocean model) which runs once every week (Wednesday), with the 16 Ensemble Members at a horizontal resolution of around 25 km, and the products are made available the next day (Thursday). Therefore, the ERP products for Bhutan will be generated every Friday. ERP for Bhutan is carried out for two climate variables, rainfall and temperature. Generally, the forecast output is produced on a weekly basis for a period of a month for both the variables. The current products available from NCHM are on pilot basis which needs further studies and validation with the ground observations until the product is fully operationalized.

Issued Date: 27 December, 2024

Summary

The rainfall is likely to be above normal in the east and normal in the rest of the country in the first week, and then below normal for the rest of the month.
The maximum temperature is likely to be normal for the third week, and above normal for the first, second and forth weeks.
The minimum temperature is likely to be above normal for the month.

Click here to download Extended Range Prediction issued on 03 January, 2025

Archive

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Extended Range Prediction issued on 27 December, 2024
Extended Range Prediction issued on 22 November, 2024
Extended Range Prediction issued on 15 November, 2024
Extended Range Prediction issued on 01 November, 2024
Extended Range Prediction issued on 25 October, 2024